Will Economic Growth of 5% GDP Short Circuit Blue Wave in November and Keep Republicans in Power ?

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The White House / Flickr trump and pence walking...
The White House / Flickr

There is a growing expectation by progressives and democrats that Trump will face Mueller charges and a blue wave will carry the day in November .There maybe several problems with this plan.  According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve , they are forecasting 5.4% GDP growth in the first qtr. There might be a ‘‘perfect storm”. ( for a 2nd time.)

One model that forecasts the US economy’s performance could shock even President Donald Trump if it ends up being accurate.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model projects that gross domestic product would increase at a 5.4% annualized rate in the first quarter.

The last time the economy grew that much was in the third quarter of 2003. If correct, this would be the first period of more than 5% growth since the third quarter of 2014. Additionally, the forecast is much higher than that of the most bullish economist polled in the Blue Chip forecast.

The model spiked Thursday after the Institute of Supply Management released monthly data on US manufacturing, which raised the outlook for the biggest driver of growth: consumer spending. Also, data on construction spending raised the Atlanta Fed’s forecast for business investment via real private fixed-investment growth.

Should the economy grow rapidly in 2018, Republicans will have a very strong platform to run on of tax cuts , economic growth and increased military spending. Many Americans will become ambivalent to Trump’s antics especially in key states such as Michigan, PA , Fla and others central to retaking the house.  In fact, it would be possible to lose ground in November should predictions of 3-5% GDP actually validate.

Secondly, recent Rasmussen tracking polls show Trump at his greatest popularity ( 49% favorable) the highest in his presidency. Polls such as this ( that mostly republicans/ fox viewers watch) will most certaintly embolden Trump  and this will lead to the next chain reaction- Firing Mueller

The Rasmussen daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday ( Feb.9) shows 49% of U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance, Fifty ( 50%) disapprove.

Thirdly, it has become clear with recent resignations at the FBI, most notably Rachel Brand, Trump has put Rosenstein and Mueller clearly in the bullseye. Trump’s refusal to release the Democratic rebuttal of the Nunez memo, again serves as further substantiation of Trump’s grand plan to end the Russia investigation. (Although i think its a positive development, in that it will bring attention to the rebuttal and perhaps  draw further public scrutiny of what Trump is upto – obstruction) . Its becoming increasingly clear, its not if Rosenstein goes, its only when . I assume Mueller knows exactly what’s going on, but only hope he recognizes that time is not on his side. This leads me to believe that Trump will challenge Mueller’s orders in court, looking to run out the clock on him , so no interview is likely .

I have little doubt about the re-actions this post may bring on , but its intended to be a potential reality check on all of our expectations and a word of caution.  Its imperative Mueller moves as swiftly as possible to end our long national nightmare.

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